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Desk Research
Contribution Analysis
A theory-based evaluation approach where a causal theory of change is developed or reviewed, then tested against existing and newly gathered evidence. The process involves assessing the plausibility of the intervention's contribution to outcomes, ruling out alternative explanations, and iteratively refining the theory with input from external stakeholders or data sources.
When This Method Fits
Typical duration
Weeks – Months
Typical cost
Medium – High
Fidelity level
N/A
Stage
Scaling, Implementation
Hypothesis type
Mechanism, Outcome
Goal type
Deepen product-market fit, Scale the model, Maximize societal impact, Drive corporate innovation / R&D, Improve operational efficiency
Randomization
Not Possible
Study design
Interrupted time series
Minimum units needed
1
Causal rigor
Min 2 · Max 3 / 5
1Best Fit When
Best when you need to make a credible causal claim about a real, already-running initiative where a controlled experiment isn't feasible.